Refined oil prices may see the biggest increase this year, with an additional cost of about 23.5 yuan per case
Wang Shan, an analyst of refined oil products at Jinfengchuang, pointed out that the recent geopolitical situation has firmly controlled the pricing power of crude oil. At first, investors watched the progress of the US-Iran situation negotiations. Coupled with the increase in the total amount of US crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, and the uncertainty brought by the new round of US tariffs to the global economy and fuel demand, a series of positive and negative factors led to a volatile trend in crude oil. However, since the end of February, the military conflict among the United States, Israel and Iran has escalated. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing disruptions in crude oil supply and transportation to many countries in the region. As a result, oil prices have risen sharply and reached their highest level in nearly 20 months.
Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the rate of change in this round is extending positively. According to Jinfengchuang's calculation, as of the 9th working day on March 6th, the average price of the reference crude oil variety was $73.06 per barrel, with a change rate of 9.61%. Correspondingly, the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be raised by 485 yuan per ton.
There is only one working day left until the price adjustment (24:00 on March 9th). Wang Shan predicts that the "four consecutive increases" of domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices will be implemented as scheduled. Moreover, due to inertia, it is expected that the final price adjustment range may still have room for upward extension. Liu Bingjuan, an analyst of refined oil products at Longzhong Information, also said that with the sharp increase in international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices will face the largest increase this year.
Based on the current crude oil level, Jinfengchuang estimates that the increase in oil prices in this round may be around 600 yuan per ton, which is approximately 0.47 to 0.51 yuan per liter. In terms of gasoline, for a small car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, filling up the tank will increase the cost by about 23.5 yuan. For diesel, for a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 140 liters, filling up a tank will increase the cost by approximately 71.4 yuan.
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